The key question isn't whether Tom Siebel is going to be more involved in the leadership of the company, or whether Shaheen has a better sales and marketing strategy than Lawrie (who, it can be said, launched a Siebel mid-market initiative at least as good as all the other mid-market initiatives Siebel keeps launching!) No, the question is—has Tom Siebel bought anything big lately? Like a cruise liner, or an island, or an asteroid in nearby orbit or something like that.

When David Duffield, the first CEO of PeopleSoft, returned to became the last CEO of the independent PeopleSoft, I had an inkling it was all over but for the shouting. Not because Duffield's demeanor would be more conducive to closing the bitter buyout chapter with Oracle, or because he would be able to better preserve shareholder value than Craig Conway, who was scorching the earth. It was because earlier that week, Duffield had closed on his purchase of TV's famous Ponderosa ranch.

As any woman will tell you, men are a lot like boys. And when boys get a new toy, they want to play with it. A ranch is certainly a big-boy toy, but it's a toy nonetheless, and it seemed highly unlikely that Duffield would be walking away from that toy to lead PeopleSoft into a new golden age. Being a grown-up, he was simply able to put it back in the wrapper for a little while, knowing it would be there when he got back.

So it comes down to boys and their toys. If Tom Siebel, or maybe even Shaheen, buys a big toy sometime soon, I'd start numbering Siebel's days.

The subtext of the apparent dismissal of Lawrie is intriguing, as the former IBM exec represented an even greater proximity between Siebel and Big Blue, its best buddy over the past couple of years. (When is the last time you've seen a Siebel ad campaign that WASN'T IBM co-branded?) I suspect that the relationship is sufficiently valuable that it is greater than any one man, even in the top executive spot at Siebel, but I'm guessing that trying to tie the companies together at that level of association didn't pan out the way they expected. Maybe IBM will take the direct approach next time. But, mark my words, it won't happen before Tom Siebel buys something fun to play with. Like the NHL. I hear nobody's playing with it these days.)